Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 20 January 

World Bank forecasts global economic growth at 4% in 2021 as vaccine rollout becomes widespread, following an estimated 4.3% contraction in 2020.

Chinese economy sees full year growth of 2.3% in 2020. This is the slowest rate in more than four decades, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

-3.7%

Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2020, according to GlobalData.

8.8%

IMF projects the India economy to grow by 8.8% in 2021 following an estimated 10.3% contraction in 2020.

Impact of Covid-19 on Travel and Tourism

- SECTOR IMPACT: Travel and tourism -

Latest update: 3 February

International travel impact

49%

GlobalData figures show that international arrivals fell by 49% in 2020. 

54%

According to GlobalData, inbound expenditure globally fell by 54% in 2020.

UNEMPLOYMENT: Country Focus

Unemployment rate in the urban areas of China stood at 5.6% in 2020, which is below the government's forecast of 6%, reflecting the stable job market over the past year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China. (18 January)

According to the OECD, unemployment rate in OECD nations declined marginally to 6.9% in November 2020 from 7.1% in October 2020.

Unemployment rate among G7 nations also declined to 6% in November 2020 from 6.2% in the previous month. (14 January)

Unemployment rate in the US stood at 6.7% in December 2020, unchanged from the previous month. Total non-farm payroll employment declined by 140,000 during the month amid rising Covid-19 cases, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.

Jobless rate in the Eurozone declined to 8.3% in November 2020 from 8.4% in the previous month, according to Eurostat. (8 January)

Key travel and tourism market developments

The travel tourism industry has not seen the kind of turnaround it was hoping for.

Concerns over new variants that may be more contagious have led to the re-imposition of stringent travel restrictions and quarantine requirements in many parts of the world, most notably in Europe.

In the US, the new Biden administration has reintroduced travel restrictions that were lifted towards the end of the Trump administration This does little to inspire confidence in booking travel.

In response, companies are adapting their operations. Airlines are once again reducing flight schedules, while hotels continue to work on making themselves Covid-19 secure. Tourism boards have, in many cases, been forced to shift their focus towards attracting people from their home market.

As results announcement season approaches, analysts are bracing themselves for large losses and calls for caution from CEOs. However, several countries are starting to make notable strides in terms of vaccine rollout programmes and this is cause for cautious optimism as the year progresses

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