Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 22 July

After months of decline, GDP estimates for many countries have turned positive: the consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2021 is 6.1%

Polls show that technology will change job prospects over the next three years, with AI expected to bring a change to job prospects

4%

The World Bank has downgraded the economic growth forecast for East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China) to 4% in 2021

4.8%

 The European Commission has revised the economic growth rate of the EU upward to 4.8% in 2021

- SECTOR IMPACT: Travel and tourism -

Latest update: 4 August

International travel impact

$8.8bn

IAG, the owner of British Airways, reported a record £6.3bn ($8.8bn) loss in 2020 due to Covid-19.

€121bn

Italy lost out on an astonishing £105bn (€121bn) in travel and tourism due to Covid-19 restrictions.

SHORT-Term IMPACT

The focus continues to be on survival. Uncertain travel restrictions means more government relief may be needed.

MID-Term IMPACT

Travel bubbles and travel corridors branch open for more countries. Covid-19 tests and vaccination requirements are part of the new norm.

Key travel and tourism market developments

The Covid-19 pandemic shut down most cruise lines since March 2020 but there are areas of the world where cruise ships are restarting.

Mostly in Europe and Asia, there are various single nationality cruises calling in at a limited number of ports. August saw the UK Government lift its international cruise ban and international cruises from England were permitted.

In the US, cruises resumed to Alaska. Many cruise lines now require a negative Covid-19 test or proof of full vaccination. With demand for cruising low and a limited return thus far, the short-term outlook for cruises still seems bleak.

Many intermediaries are now focusing on experiences as a primary focus with partnerships becoming more common. Recent partnerships include Trivago's (Expedia Group) partnership with Musement, TUI's experiential subsidiary, and Booking.com's attraction partnership with Viator (TripAdvisor).

As travel remains restricted, tours and activities look to be another revenue stream, although reduced capacities at sites limit even this positive.

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